EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2207; (P) 1.2249 (R1) 1.2279;
Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the downside for 1.2154 support. Firm break there should confirm rejection by 1.2516 key fibonacci resistance. In that case, whole decline from 1.2555 should target 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 next. On the upside, above 1.2314 minor resistance will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862 in medium term.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1773; (P) 1.1789; (R1) 1.1806;
No change in EUR/CHF’s outlook. Further rise could be seen as the rebound from 1.1445 extends. But still, we’ll stay cautious on strong resistance from 1.1832 to bring near term reversal. Below 1.1730 will turn bias to the downside first. Further break of 1.1649 support will indicate completion of rebound form 1.1445. And the corrective pattern from 1.1832 would then extend with another decline to retest 1.1445. However, firm break of 1.1832 will confirm resumption of larger up trend.
In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.1832 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we’d still expect another rise through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000.
