EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1821; (P) 1.1879 (R1) 1.1922;
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside at this point. Current fall is in progress to 261.8% projection of 1.2475 to 1.2214 from 1.2413 at 1.1730. As it will then be close to 1.1708 medium term fibonacci level, some support could be seen around 1.1708/30 to bring rebound. Though, break of 1.1938 minor resistance is needed to be the first sign of short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, current decline and firm break of 1.2154 support confirms rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. A medium term top should be in place at 1.2555 and deeper decline would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 first. With current downside acceleration, there is prospect of hitting 61.8% retracement at 1.1186 before completing the decline. But still, we’ll need to look at the structure before deciding if it’s a corrective or impulsive move.
AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7414; (P) 0.7471; (R1) 0.7508;
Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Current decline should target next cluster support at 0.7328 (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326). Sustained break will add more credence to the case of long term down trend resumption and target 0.7158 support next. On the upside, break of 0.7559 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Decisive break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.
