EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1914; (P) 1.1955 (R1) 1.1999;
Downside momentum in EUR/USD continues to diminish with 4 hour MACD staying above signal line. But with 1.2008 minor resistance intact, intraday bias remains on the downside for 200% projection of 1.2475 to 1.2214 from 1.2413 at 1.1891. Break will target 261.8% projection at 1.1730. On the upside, though, break of 1.2008 minor resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.2064) or above.
In the bigger picture, current decline and firm break of 1.2154 support confirms rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. A medium term top should be in place at 1.2555 and deeper decline would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708 first. With current downside acceleration, there is prospect of hitting 61.8% retracement at 1.1186 before completing the decline. But still, we’ll need to look at the structure to before deciding if it’s a corrective or impulsive move.
AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7499; (P) 0.7529; (R1) 0.7568;
Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 0.7472 temporary low. As long as 0.7583 minor resistance holds, the consolidation should be relatively brief and recent fall should resume sooner rather than later. Below 0.7472 and sustained break of 0.7500 will indicate medium term reversal and target next support at 0.7328. However, break of 0.7583 will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. And stronger rebound could be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7472 at 0.7725 and possibly above.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Decisive break of 0.7500 key support will suggest that such correction is completed. In that case, deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.
