EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1762; (P) 1.1792 (R1) 1.1815;
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as it’s staying in tight range below 1.1839. With 1.1713 intact, rise from 1.1509 could extend higher. But still, it’s seen as a correction and upside should be limited by 1.1995 resistance to bring reversal. On the downside, break of 1.1713 minor support will likely resume larger fall from 1.2555 through 1.1509 to 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won’t consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.
AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7594; (P) 0.7608; (R1) 0.7625;
AUD/USD’s corrective rise from 0.7411 should have completed at 0.7676 already, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7144 at 0.7688. Deeper fall should be seen to 0.7475 support first. Break there should resume larger fall from 0.8135 and target 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326).
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Prior break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.
