EUR/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.80; (P) 128.24; (R1) 128.89;
No change in EUR/JPY’s outlook. We’d continue to expect strong resistance from 128.94 support turned resistance to limit upside to complete the rebound from 124.61. Break of 126.29 minor support will bring retest of 124.61 first. Break will resume whole fall from 137.49 and target next medium term fibonacci level at 119.90.
In the bigger picture, the case of medium term trend reversal continues to build up. That is rise from 109.03 (2016 low) could have completed at 137.49 already. This is supported by bearish divergence in daily MACD and firm break of the medium term channel support. Focus is now on 124.08 resistance turned support. Decisive break there will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90 and below. This will be the preferred case as long as 128.94 support turned resistance holds.
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.72; (P) 146.31; (R1) 146.78;
No change in GBP/JPY’s outlook. We’d expect strong resistance from 147.04 support turned resistance to complete the corrective rebound from 143.18. On the downside, below 144.52 minor support will bring retest of 143.18 first. Break will resume the decline from 153.84.
In the bigger picture, for now, we’re treating price actions from 156.59 as a corrective move. Therefore, while deeper fall is expected, strong support should be seen above 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. There is still prospect of extending the rise from 122.36. However, considering that GBP/JPY failed to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 153.94), firm break of 139.29 will confirm trend reversal and turn outlook bearish.
