EUR/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.86; (P) 132.23; (R1) 132.44
EUR/JPY reaches as high as 132.61 but lost momentum since then. For now, further rally is in favor as long as 131.09 minor support holds. Rebound from 128.94 would extend to 61.8% retracement of 137.49 to 128.94 at 134.22 and above. However, break of 131.09 will indicate completion of the rebound and bring retest of 128.94 low instead.
In the bigger picture, price action from 137.49 medium term top are developing into a corrective pattern. Strong support from 55 EMA (now at 129.91) suggests that the first leg has completed at 128.94 already. Nonetheless, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm resumption of the rise from 109.03 (2016 low). Otherwise, we’d expect more corrective range trading another, with risk of another fall to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 before completion.
AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7739; (P) 0.7755; (R1) 0.7772
At this point, AUD/USD is still bounded in range of 0.7642/7784. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Also, with 0.7784 minor resistance intact, deeper fall is in favor. On the downside, break of 0.7642 will resume the decline from 0.8135 to retest 0.7500 key support level. On the upside, however, firm break of 0.7784 will suggest near term reversal and turn bias to the upside for 0.7915 resistance first.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.
