EUR/GBP Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8766; (P) 0.8802; (R1) 0.8829;
EUR/GBP failed to break through 0.8844 and retreated. Break of 0.8776 minor support turned intraday bias neutral again. For now, another rise is expected as long as 0.8693 support holds. Break of 0.8844 will resume the rebound from 0.8620 for 0.8967 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9305 to 0.8620 at 0.8963). However, break of 0.8693 will bring deeper fall back to retest 0.8620 low.
In the bigger picture, for now, the decline from 0.9305 is seen as a leg inside the long term consolidation pattern from 0.9304 (2016 high). Such consolidation pattern could extend further. Hence, in case of strong rally, we’d be cautious on strong resistance by 0.9304/5 to limit upside. Meanwhile, in another decline attempt, we’d expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5380; (P) 1.5447; (R1) 1.5542;
Break of 1.5529 minor resistance suggests short term bottoming at 1.5271, on bullish convergence condition in4 hour MACD> Stronger rebound should now be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 1.5671). But upside should be limited well below 1.5773 support turned resistance to bring reversal. The whole decline from 1.6189 is expected resume later to 1.5153 key support and below.
In the bigger picture, rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) should have completed at 1.6189 already, ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). 1.6189 is seen as a medium term top. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 first. Decisive break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.4604. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming again below 1.4604. On the upside, firm break of 1.5773 support turned resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 1.6189. Otherwise, further decline is expected in medium term, even in case of strong rebound.
