EUR/GBP Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8748; (P) 0.8769; (R1) 0.8798;
EUR/GBP is still bounded in right range inside near term channel. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, above 0.8808 will target 0.8844 first. Firm break there will finally confirm our bullish view and resume the rebound from 0.8620 to 0.8967 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9305 to 0.8620 at 0.8963). On the downside, however, break of 0.8679 minor support should indicate completion of the rebound form 0.8620. And intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for this support.
In the bigger picture, for now, the decline from 0.9305 is seen as a leg inside the long term consolidation pattern from 0.9304 (2016 high). Such consolidation pattern could extend further. Hence, in case of strong rally, we’d be cautious on strong resistance by 0.9304/5 to limit upside. Meanwhile, in another decline attempt, we’d expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5291; (P) 1.5350; (R1) 1.5418;
Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral for the moment with focus back on 1.5529 resistance. Break there will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In that case, stronger rebound could be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 1.5676) before staging another fall. On the downside, below 1.5271 will target 1.5153 key support. But we’ll be cautious on strong support from there to bring rebound.
In the bigger picture, rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) should have completed at 1.6189 already, ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). 1.6189 is seen as a medium term top. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 first. Decisive break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.4604. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming again below 1.4604. On the upside, firm break of 1.5773 support turned resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 1.6189. Otherwise, further decline is expected in medium term, even in case of strong rebound.
