EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1290; (P) 1.1326; (R1) 1.1365;
A temporary low is in place at 1.1285 in EUR/CHF and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Deep fall is expected as long as 1.1489 support turned resistance holds. Below 1.1285 will target key support zone between 1.1154/98. We’d expect strong support from there to contain downside to complete the whole decline from 1.2004.
In the bigger picture, for now, the price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by 1.1154/98 support zone, 1.1198 (2016 high), 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. This cluster level is in proximity to long term channel support (now at 1.1173) too. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend.
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5638; (P) 1.5669; (R1) 1.5717;
EUR/AUD’s rebound from 1.5578 resumed by taking out 1.5701 minor resistance. The development argues that pull back from 1.5888 might be completed already. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for retesting 1.5888 first. On the downside, though, below 1.5578 will resume the fall from 1.5888 to 61.8% retracement of 1.5271 to 1.5888 at 1.5507.
In the bigger picture, the rebound from 1.5271 was somewhat weaker than expected. EUR/AUD also failed to sustain above 55 day EMA and hints on some underlying bearishness. Though, for now, as long as 1.5271 support holds, medium term rise from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still mildly in favor to extend through 1.6189 high, to 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Nevertheless, firm break of 1.5271 will complete a head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 1.5770, h: 1.6189, rs: 1.5888). That would indicate medium term reversal and turn outlook bearish.
