EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1485; (P) 1.1515; (R1) 1.1532;
Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the downside as fall from 1.1713 is in progress for 1.1478 support. Break there will confirm completion of corrective rebound from 1.1366 at 1.1713. Retest of 1.1366 low should then be seen. On the upside, break of 1.1603 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 1.1713. Otherwise, near term outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, 1.2004 is seen as a medium term top with bearish divergence condition in daily and weekly MACD. 1.2000 is also an important resistance level. Hence, the corrective pattern from 1.2004 is expected to extend for a while before completion. We’re not anticipating a break of 1.2004 in near term. Another decline cannot be ruled out yet. But in that case, strong support should be seen at 1.1198 (2016 high), 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to contain downside.
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5592; (P) 1.5672; (R1) 1.5720;
Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains mildly on the downside at this point. The rebound from 1.5271 could have completed at 1.5888 already. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.5271 to 1.5888 at 1.5507. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.5271 low. On the upside, break of 1.5749 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.5888 instead.
In the bigger picture, the rebound from 1.5271 was somewhat weaker than expected. EUR/AUD also failed to sustain above 55 day EMA and hints on some underlying bearishness. Though, for now, as long as 1.5271 support holds, medium term rise from m 1.3624 (2017 low) is still mildly in favor to extend through 1.6189 high, to 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Nevertheless, firm break of 1.5271 will complete a head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 1.5770, h: 1.6189, rs: 1.5888). That would indicate medium term reversal and turn outlook bearish.
