EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5348; (P) 1.5395; (R1) 1.5439;
EUR/AUD recovers today and breaks of 1.5454 minor resistance suggests temporary bottoming at 1.5314. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidation. But upside of recovery should b limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6139 to 1.5314 at 1.5269 to bring fall resumption. Below 1.5314 will resume the decline from 1.6189 and target 1.5153 key support level next.
In the bigger picture, rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) should have completed at 1.6189 already, ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). 1.6189 is seen as a medium term top. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 first. Decisive break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.4604. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming again below 1.4604. On the upside, firm break of 1.5773 support turned resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 1.6189. Otherwise, further decline is expected in medium term, even in case of strong rebound.
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8725; (P) 0.8755; (R1) 0.8813;
EUR/GBP rebounded after hitting 0.8693 and drew support from near term channel. But it’s staying in range of 0.8679/8844. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.8844 will resume the rebound from 0.8620. That will also revive the case of larger bullish reversal. EUR/GBP should target 0.8967 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9305 to 0.8620 at 0.8963). On the downside, break of 0.8679 support will indicate completion of the rebound form 0.8620. And intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for this low.
In the bigger picture, for now, the decline from 0.9305 is seen as a leg inside the long term consolidation pattern from 0.9304 (2016 high). Such consolidation pattern could extend further. Hence, in case of strong rally, we’d be cautious on strong resistance by 0.9304/5 to limit upside. Meanwhile, in another decline attempt, we’d expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.
