EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5300; (P) 1.5349; (R1) 1.5434;
EUR/AUD is losing some downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But deeper decline is still expected with 1.5529 resistance intact. Current fall should target 1.5153 key support level. On the upside, break of 1.5529 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) should have completed at 1.6189 already, ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). 1.6189 is seen as a medium term top. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 first. Decisive break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.4604. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming again below 1.4604. On the upside, firm break of 1.5773 support turned resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 1.6189. Otherwise, further decline is expected in medium term, even in case of strong rebound.
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8716; (P) 0.8754; (R1) 0.8785;
Outlook in EUR/GBP is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, above 0.8808 will target 0.8844 first. Firm break there will finally confirm our bullish view and resume the rebound from 0.8620 to 0.8967 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9305 to 0.8620 at 0.8963). On the downside, however, break of 0.8679 minor support should indicate completion of the rebound form 0.8620. And intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for this support.
In the bigger picture, for now, the decline from 0.9305 is seen as a leg inside the long term consolidation pattern from 0.9304 (2016 high). Such consolidation pattern could extend further. Hence, in case of strong rally, we’d be cautious on strong resistance by 0.9304/5 to limit upside. Meanwhile, in another decline attempt, we’d expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.
