EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6000; (P) 1.6115; (R1) 1.6178;
A temporary top is in place at 1.6228 in EUR/AUD with the 4-hour MACD crossed below the signal line. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. A further rally is expected as long as 1.5884 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, above 1.6228 will extend the rise from 1.5346 to retest the 1.6357 high. At this point, we’d be cautious on topping around there to bring pull back. On the downside, break of 1.5884 will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the downside for 1.5346 support.
In the bigger picture, no change in the view that 1.6357 is a medium-term top. The strong rebound ahead of 1.5271 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6357 at 1.5313) suggests price actions from 1.6357 are developing into sideways consolidation, rather than a deep correction. The range of 1.5271/6357 is likely to set for the consolidation. And we don’t expect a break of the range any time soon. A decisive break of 1.6357 will resume the larger up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) to 1.6587 (2015 high).
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8965; (P) 0.8988; (R1) 0.9009;
Consolidation from 0.9086 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral first. The downside of the consolidation should be contained by 0.8931 resistance turned support to bring another rise. On the upside firm break of 0.9098 resistance will extend the whole rise from 0.8655 to 0.9304 key resistance next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4-hour MACD, firm break of 0.8931 will indicate near term reversal and target 0.8810 support and below.
In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is seen as staying in a long-term range pattern started at 0.9304 (2016 high). It should be in a medium-term rising leg for 0.9304. Meanwhile, in case of another fall, down side should be contained by 0.8620/55 support zone to bring rebound.
