EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5593; (P) 1.5627; (R1) 1.5668;
EUR/AUD recovers further today but struggles to stay above 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.5677) 1.5677 so far. Intraday bias remains neutral and another decline is mildly in favor. Below 1.5578 will resume the fall from 1.5888 to 61.8% retracement of 1.5271 to 1.5888 at 1.5507. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.5271 low. Nonetheless, sustained break of 4 hour 55 EMA will bring retest of 1.5888 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, the rebound from 1.5271 was somewhat weaker than expected. EUR/AUD also failed to sustain above 55 day EMA and hints on some underlying bearishness. Though, for now, as long as 1.5271 support holds, medium term rise from m 1.3624 (2017 low) is still mildly in favor to extend through 1.6189 high, to 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Nevertheless, firm break of 1.5271 will complete a head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 1.5770, h: 1.6189, rs: 1.5888). That would indicate medium term reversal and turn outlook bearish.
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8972; (P) 0.8995; (R1) 0.9034;
Despite rather deep pull back, price actions from 0.9030 are still seen as a correction only. And, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.8854 support holds. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 0.9305 to 0.8620 at 0.9043 will extend the whole rise from 0.8620 to retest 0.9305 high.
In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is staying in long term range pattern from 0.9304 (2016 high). The corrective structure of the fall from 0.9305 to 0.8620 is raising the chance that rise from 0.8312 to 0.9305 is an impulsive move. But we’re not too confident on it yet. In any case, we’d stay cautious on strong resistance from 0.9304/5 to limit upside in case of further rally. Meanwhile, if there is another medium term decline, strong support will likely be seen from 0.8303 to contain downside.
