EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5392; (P) 1.5428; (R1) 1.5485;
Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.5314 is still in progress. Further recovery could be seen. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6139 to 1.5314 at 1.5269 to bring fall resumption. Below 1.5314 will resume the decline from 1.6189 and target 1.5153 key support level next.
In the bigger picture, rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) should have completed at 1.6189 already, ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). 1.6189 is seen as a medium term top. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 first. Decisive break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.4604. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming again below 1.4604. On the upside, firm break of 1.5773 support turned resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 1.6189. Otherwise, further decline is expected in medium term, even in case of strong rebound.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1470; (P) 1.1521; (R1) 1.1579;
Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 1.1366 is still in progress. Further recovery could be seen. But we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1366 at 1.1610 to bring another decline. Below 1.1366 will resume the fall from 1.2004 and target next key support zone between 1.1154 and 1.1198.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests solid rejection by prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, 1.2004 should be a medium term top. And price action from 1.2004 is correcting the up trend from 1.0629. The cross has met 1.1445 already, which is close to 38.2% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1479. We’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound to extend the medium term corrective pattern. However, sustained break of 1.1445 will target next key cluster level at 1.1198 (2016 high), 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154.
