AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7070; (P) 0.7100; (R1) 0.7153;
No change in AUD/USD’s outlook as consolidation from 0.7040 is extending. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Stronger recovery could be seen but upside should be limited well below 0.7314 resistance to bring down trend resumption eventually. On the downside, firm break of 0.7040 will resume whole down trend from 0.8135 to 61.8% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7084 from 0.7314 at 0.6948 next.
In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). However, break of 0.7500 support turned resistance will argue that the corrective pattern from 0.6826 is going to extend with another rising leg before completion.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.82; (P) 112.18; (R1) 112.53;
Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral for consolidation with a temporary low in place at 111.82. But further decline is expected as long as 113.28 resistance holds. Fall from 114.54 is seen as correcting whole up trend from 104.62, after rejection by 114.73 resistance. Below 111.82 will target 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75. We’ll look for bottoming signal above 109.76 key support.
In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.
