AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7235; (P) 0.7269; (R1) 0.7290;
A temporary top is in place at 0.7302, ahead of 0.7314 key resistance. Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral first. Another rise is mildly in favor as long as 0.7182 minor support holds. Decisive break of 0.7314 will confirm medium term bottoming at 0.7020. In that case, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446. However, on the downside, break of 0.7182 minor support will suggest that the rebound is completed. And, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.7020 low.
In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7314 resistance holds, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7314 will suggest that whole decline from 0.8135 has completed. And, the corrective pattern from 0.6826 (2016 low) is extending with another rising leg towards 0.8135 before completion.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.64; (P) 113.88; (R1) 114.28;
USD/JPY’s break of 113.81 temporary top suggests that rebound from 111.37 has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 114.54 resistance. At this point, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring another fall to extend the consolidation pattern from 114.54. On the downside, break of 112.94 minor support will argue that the rebound has completed. And, in that case, the corrective pattern from 114.54 could have started the third leg for 111.37 support and possibly below.
In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.
