AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7387; (P) 0.7416; (R1) 0.7456;
Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside as rebound from 0.7309 short term bottom continues. Further rally could be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 0.7508) and possibly above. But upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 0.7414 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 0.7309 low first. Sustained break of 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.30; (P) 110.55; (R1) 110.72;
Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. We’re holding on to the view that rebound from 108.10 could have completed already. On the downside, break of 110.27 will firm this case and turn bias to the downside for 109.36 support. Break there will confirm that corrective pattern from 111.39 has started the third leg for 108.10 support. In that case, we’d expect downside to be contained by 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20. On the upside, above 111.13 will bring retest of 111.39 instead.
In the bigger picture, at this point, we’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.
