AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7433; (P) 0.7458; (R1) 0.7487;
AUD/USD’s decline and break of 0.7414 minor support suggests that the corrective recovery from 0.7309 has completed at 0.7483. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 0.7309 low. Decisive break of f 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the larger fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next. On the upside, above 0.7483 will bring another recovery through 55 day EMA (now at 0.7503). But upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3092; (P) 1.3119; (R1) 1.3139;
USD/CAD’s recovery is limited below 1.3159 minor resistance so far and intraday bias stays neutral. For now, we continue to expect strong around 1.3067 resistance turned support to complete the correction from 1.3385 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.3159 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3385. However, firm break of 1.3067 will bring deeper fall to channel support (now at 1.2838).
In the bigger picture, as long as channel support (now at 1.2838) holds, we’ll holding to the bullish view. That is, fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. However, sustained break of the channel support will argue that rise from 1.2061 has completed and will bring deeper fall to 1.2526 support to confirm.
