AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7406; (P) 0.7424; (R1) 0.7440;
AUD/USD strengthens mildly today but stays in range of 0.7359/7483. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Outlook is unchanged that consolidation from 0.7309 could extend further and stronger recovery cannot be ruled out. But after all, upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring larger fall resumption. On the downside, below 0.7359 will target 0.7309 support first. Sustained trading below 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3106; (P) 1.3141; (R1) 1.3171;
USD/CAD is bounded in tight range of 1.3063/3216 and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook is unchanged and we’re preferring the case that pull back from 1.3385 has completed at 1.3063 already. Above 1.3216 will bring retest of 1.3385 first. Break will resume whole rally from 1.2061 for 1.3685 fibonacci level. However, firm break of 1.3067 resistance turned support will bring deeper fall to channel support (now at 1.2858).
In the bigger picture, as long as channel support (now at 1.2858) holds, we’ll holding to the bullish view. That is, fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. However, sustained break of the channel support will argue that rise from 1.2061 has completed and will bring deeper fall to 1.2526 support to confirm.
