AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7252; (P) 0.7276; (R1) 0.7296;
Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside with 0.7322 minor resistance intact. Current fall is part of the down trend from 0.8135 high. Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7309 from 0.7452 at 0.7225 first. Break will target 100% projection at 0.7085 next. On the upside, above 0.7322 minor resistance will turn intraday bias and bring consolidation. But recovery should be limited below 0.7452 resistance to bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Sustained break of 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) should pave the way to retest 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). But we’ll look at downside momentum to assess at a later stage. On the upside, break of 0.7452 resistance might indicate medium term bottoming. But we’ll continue to favor the bearish view as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3066; (P) 1.3110; (R1) 1.3190;
A temporary top is formed at 1.3170 as USD/CAD retreated ahead of near term channel resistance. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Still, we’d favor another rise as long as 1.3035 minor support holds. The correction from 1.3385 should have completed with three waves down to 1.2961. Above 1.3170 will target 1.3289 resistance first. Break there will resume larger rise from 1.2061 through 1.3385 high. On the downside, though, break of 1.3035 minor support will dampen this bullish view and turn focus back to 1.2961 low.
In the bigger picture, as long as channel support (now at 1.2944) holds, we’re holding to the bullish view. That is, fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. However, sustained break of the channel support will argue that rise from 1.2061 has completed and will bring deeper fall to 1.2526 support to confirm.
