AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7373; (P) 0.7390; (R1) 0.7405;
AUD/USD is still bounded in consolidation from 0.7309. Intraday bias remains neutral and more sideway trading could be seen. On the downside, break of 0.7309 and sustained trading below 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next. On the upside, above 0.7483 resistance will bring stronger rebound. But upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring larger fall resumption eventually.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2980; (P) 1.3010; (R1) 1.3032;
Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral with diminishing downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. Further decline cannot be ruled out yet. But fall from 1.3385 is seen as a correction. We’d expect strong support from rising channel line (now at 1.2917) to contain downside to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.3039 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.3063 support turned resistance first.
In the bigger picture, as long as channel support (now at 1.2917) holds, we’re holding to the bullish view. That is, fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. However, sustained break of the channel support will argue that rise from 1.2061 has completed and will bring deeper fall to 1.2526 support to confirm.
