AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7693; (P) 0.7753; (R1) 0.7787;
AUD/USD faced strong rejection from near term falling channel resistance. Break of 0.7743 indicates that rebound from 0.7642 has completed at 0.7812. And larger fall from 0.8135 might be resuming. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 0.7642 first. Break will target 0.7500 key support level.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2611; (P) 1.2643; (R1) 1.2702;
Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains mildly on the upside. Rebound from 1.2526 short term bottom should extend to 38.2% retracement of 1.2942 to 1.2526 at 1.2685, or even further to 55 day EMA (now at 1.2725). But upside should be limited well below 1.2814 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. We’d expect decline from 1.3124 to extend later to 1.2061/2246 support zone.
In the bigger picture, current development turns favors to the case that rise from 1.2061 is a corrective three wave pattern. It could have completed at 1.3124 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Focus is now back on 1.2061 and 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4689 (2016 high) to 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424.
