AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7662; (P) 0.7684; (R1) 0.7698;
No change in AUD/USD’s outlook. With 0.7784 minor resistance intact, further decline is expected. Current fall fro 0.8135 would target a test on 0.7500 key support level. At this point, we’ll stay cautious on strong support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, however, break of 0.7784 will suggest near term reversal and turn bias to the upside for 0.7915 resistance first.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2868; (P) 1.2884; (R1) 1.2908;
Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral at this point. We’d still expect strong support from 1.2802 cluster support zone (38.2% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2789) to contain downside and bring rebound. Larger rise is expected to resume later. And break of of 1.3124 will target 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.2916 from 1.2246 at 1.3629 next. However, on the downside firm break of 1.2789/2802 will raise the chance of rejection by 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level and bring deeper fall to 55 day EMA (now at 1.2773) and below.
In the bigger picture, we’re favoring the medium term bullish case. That is, larger down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 as a correction, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2802 support holds. However, rejection by 1.3065 will argue that price action from 1.2061 is merely a three wave corrective pattern. And 1.2061 will be put back into focus with medium term bearishness revived.
