AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7130; (P) 0.7173; (R1) 0.7199;
Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. Rebound form 0.7084 short term bottom could extend. But it’s seen as a correction and upside should be limited well below 0.7361 resistance to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7084 will resume the fall from 0.8135 for key support level at 0.6826. However, sustained break of 0.7361 will carry larger bullish implication.
In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Current downside momentum as seen in daily and weekly MACD support this bearish case. Firm break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7361 resistance, however, argues that a medium term bottom is possibly in place, and stronger rebound could follow. We’ll assess the medium term outlook later if this happens.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1222; (P) 1.1263; (R1) 1.1286;
Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment. In case of deeper fall, we’d continue to expect strong support from key support zone of 1.1154/98 to bring reversal. On the upside, above 1.1342 will target 1.1452 resistance first. Break should confirm that whole decline from 1.2004 has completed a target 1.1713 resistance next. However, sustained break of 1.1154/98 will carry larger bearish implications.
In the bigger picture, for now, the price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by support zone of 1.1198 (2016 high) and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. This cluster level is in proximity to long term channel support (now at 1.1207) too. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend. In that case, 1.0629 key support will be back into focus.
