AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7156; (P) 0.7213; (R1) 0.7249;
AUD/USD dipped to 0.7165 earlier today but recovered. For now, intraday bias stays on the downside as long as 0.7235 minor resistance holds. Current decline, which is part of the down trend from 0.8135, should target 100% projection of 0.7452 to 0.7201 from 0.7361 at 0.7110. Break will target 161.8% projection at 0.6955. On the upside, above 0.7235 will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 0.7361 résistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). But we’ll look at downside momentum to assess at a later stage. On the upside, break of 0.7452 resistance, however, will indicate medium term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. In that case, a medium term correction should be seen first before down trend resumption.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1212; (P) 1.1268; (R1) 1.1298;
EUR/CHF recovers mildly today but still, intraday bias stays on the downside for key support zone at 1.1154/98. At this point, we’d still expect strong support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.1310 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.1452 resistance. However, sustained break of 1.1154/98 will carry larger bearish implications.
In the bigger picture, for now, the price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by support zone of 1.1198 (2016 high) and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. This cluster level is in proximity to long term channel support (now at 1.1173) too. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend. In that case, 1.0629 key support will be back into focus.
