AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7529; (P) 0.7560; (R1) 0.7578;
Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 0.7502 minor support will suggest that the corrective recovery from 0.7411 has completed. Intraday bias would be turned back to the downside for 0.7411 and below to resume the larger decline from 0.8135 to cluster support at 0.7328 (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326). Above 0.7604 will extend the corrective rise. But we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7144 at 0.7688 to limit upside.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Prior break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1496; (P) 1.1570; (R1) 1.1609;
Strong rebound in EUR/CHF suggests temporary bottoming at 1.1513. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. While another fall cannot be ruled out yet, we’d expect strong support from 1.1445 to contain downside, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.1659 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for rebound.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests solid rejection by prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, 1.2004 should be a medium term top. And price action from 1.2004 is correcting the up trend from 1.0629. Hence, for now, deeper fall could be seen back to 1.1445, which is close to 38.2% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1479. We’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound to extend the medium term corrective pattern. However, sustained break of 1.1445 will target next key cluster level at 1.1198 (2016 high), 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154.
