AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7423; (P) 0.7448; (R1) 0.7483;
With 0.7559 minor resistance intact, further fall is expected in AUD?USD. Next target is cluster support at 0.7328 (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326). Sustained break will add more credence to the case of long term down trend resumption and target 0.7158 support next. On the upside, break of 0.7559 resistance, however, will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Lengthier consolidation would then be seen before another fall.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Decisive break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1880; (P) 1.1901; (R1) 1.1936;
EUR/CHF recovered after dipping to 1.1864 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Further fall is expected as long as 1.1932 minor resistance holds. A short term top was formed at 1.2004 after failing to sustain above 1.2 handle. Below 1.1864 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1445 to 1.2004 at 1.1790. Though, we’d expect strong support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.1932 will turn focus back to 1.2004 high.
In the bigger picture, long term up trend in EUR/CHF is still in progress. Prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000 was already met but there is no sign of reversal yet. As long as 1.1445 support holds, we’d expect the up trend to extend to 2013 high at 1.2649 next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Break of 1.1445 will be an indication of medium term reversal and will turn outlook bearish.
