AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7335; (P) 0.7348; (R1) 0.7368;
AUD/USD formed a temporary low at 0.7322 and recovered. But it’s staying below 0.7443 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Deeper fall is expected as long as 0.7443 resistance holds. Sustained break of 0.7326/8cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend larger fall from 0.8315 to 61.8% projection of 0.8135 to 0.7411 from 0.7676 at 0.7229 next. Though, break of 0.7443 resistance will suggest short term bottoming and bring lengthier consolidations.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. Firm break there will resume the long term down trend from 1.1079 and take 0.6008 support next (2008 low). This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1515; (P) 1.1540; (R1) 1.1568;
Breach of 1.1585 minor resistance argues that pull back from 1.1656 has completed at 1.1478. Intraday bias is mildly on the upside for 1.1656 and above. But we’d expect upside to be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1366 at 1.1760 to complete the corrective rebound from 1.1366. On the downside, below 1.1478 will target 1.1366 low instead.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests solid rejection by prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily and weekly MACD, 1.2004 should be a medium term top. And price action from 1.2004 is correcting the up trend from 1.0629. Such correction is expected to extend for a while and therefore, we’re not anticipating a break of 1.2004 in near term. Another decline cannot be ruled out yet. But in that case, strong support should be seen at 1.1198 (2016 high), 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to contain downside.
