AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7309; (P) 0.7358; (R1) 0.7390;
AUD/USD dipped to 0.7322 but quickly drew support from 7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326). Intraday bias remains neutral first. Deeper fall is expected as long as 0.7443 resistance holds. Sustained break of 0.7326/8 will extend larger fall from 0.8315 to 61.8% projection of 0.8135 to 0.7411 from 0.7676 at 0.7229 next Though, break of 0.7443 resistance will suggest short term bottoming and bring lengthier consolidations.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. Firm break there will resume the long term down trend from 1.1079 and take 0.6008 support next (2008 low). This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1500; (P) 1.1529; (R1) 1.1550;
EUR/CHF is staying in tight range above 1.1478 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Another decline remains mildly in favor with 1.1585 minor resistance intact. Below 1.1478 will target 1.1366 first. Break will resume the larger corrective decline from 1.2004. On the upside, above 1.1585 will likely extend the rebound from 1.1366 through 1.1656. But in that case, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1366 at 1.1760.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests solid rejection by prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily and weekly MACD, 1.2004 should be a medium term top. And price action from 1.2004 is correcting the up trend from 1.0629. Such correction is expected to extend for a while and therefore, we’re not anticipating a break of 1.2004 in near term. Another decline cannot be ruled out yet. But in that case, strong support should be seen at 1.1198 (2016 high), 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to contain downside.
