AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7344; (P) 0.7386; (R1) 0.7424;
A temporary low is in place at 1.7346 with the current recovery, ahead of 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326). Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Some consolidations could be seen. But upside of recovery should be limited well below 0.7676 resistance to bring another fall. Firm break of 0.7382 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8135 to 0.7411 from 0.7676 at 0.7229 next.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Prior break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1481; (P) 1.1528; (R1) 1.1570;
The break of 1.1505 minor support argues that rebound from 1.1366 might be completed at 1.1656 already. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for retesting 1.1366 first. Break there will resume the corrective fall from 1.2004. On the upside, though, above 1.1585 will likely extend the rebound from 1.1366 through 1.1656. But in that case, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1366 at 1.1760.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests solid rejection by prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily and weekly MACD, 1.2004 should be a medium term top. And price action from 1.2004 is correcting the up trend from 1.0629. Such correction is expected to extend for a while and therefore, we’re not anticipating a break of 1.2004 in near term. Another decline cannot be ruled out yet. But in that case, strong support should be seen at 1.1198 (2016 high), 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to contain downside.
