AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7584; (P) 0.7625; (R1) 0.7690;
For now, intraday bias in AUD/USD stays mildly on the upside. Corrective rebound from 0.9411 could extend higher. But we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7144 at 0.7688 to limit upside. On the downside, below 0.7592 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.7475 first. Break there will likely resume larger fall through 0.7411 to 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326). However, sustained break of 0.7688 will dampen our bearish view and target 61.8% retracement at 0.7585 instead.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Prior break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1531; (P) 1.1548; (R1) 1.1574;
EUR/CHF is staying in correction from 1.1366 and intraday bias remains neutral. In case of stronger recovery, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1366 at 1.1610 to bring fall resumption. Below 1.1462 minor support will bring retest of 1.1366 first. Break will resume decline from 1.2004 and target t next key support zone between 1.1154 and 1.1198.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests solid rejection by prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily and weekly MACD, 1.2004 should be a medium term top. And price action from 1.2004 is correcting the up trend from 1.0629. Deeper fall would be seen to key cluster level at 1.1198 (2016 high), 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154. We’d expect strong support around there to contain downside and bring rebound.
