AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7376; (P) 0.7396; (R1) 0.7422;
Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.7309 is extending. On the upside, above 0.7483 resistance will bring stronger rebound. But upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring larger fall resumption eventually. On the downside, break of 0.7309 and sustained trading below 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1574; (P) 1.1590; (R1) 1.1614;
No change in EUR/CHF’s outlook. The corrective rebound from 1.1366 should have completed with three waves up to 1.1713 already. Deeper fall is expected this week for 1.1478 support first. Break there will confirm our bearish view and target 1.1366 low and below. Nonetheless, on the upside, above 1.1637 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside and could extend the rise from 1.1366. But even in that case, we’d expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1366 at 1.1760 to bring near term reversal.
In the bigger picture, 1.2004 is seen as a medium term top with bearish divergence condition in daily and weekly MACD. 1.2000 is also an important resistance level. Hence, the corrective pattern from 1.2004 is expected to extend for a while before completion. We’re not anticipating a break of 1.2004 in near term. Another decline cannot be ruled out yet. But in that case, strong support should be seen at 1.1198 (2016 high), 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to contain downside.
