AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7434; (P) 0.7459; (R1) 0.7490;
AUD/USD’s rebound form 0.7309 short term bottom is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7508) and possibly above. But upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 0.7414 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 0.7309 low first. Sustained break of 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1618; (P) 1.1638; (R1) 1.1672;
EUR/CHF breached 1.1656 resistance briefly without follow through buying. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 1.1599 minor support will suggest that rebound from 1.1478 is completed. And bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.1478 and then a test on 1.1366 short term bottom. On the upside, firm break of 1.1656 will resume the corrective rise from 1.1366 to 61.8% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1366 at 1.1760. But we would expect strong resistance from there to limit upside.
In the bigger picture, EUR/CHF was solidly rejected by prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily and weekly MACD, 1.2004 should be a medium term top. And price action from 1.2004 is correcting the up trend from 1.0629. Such correction is expected to extend for a while and therefore, we’re not anticipating a break of 1.2004 in near term. Another decline cannot be ruled out yet. But in that case, strong support should be seen at 1.1198 (2016 high), 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to contain downside.
