AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7347; (P) 0.7400; (R1) 0.7427;
AUD/USD drops to as low as 0.7279 so far today. The break of 0.7309 confirms resumption of whole decline from 0.8135. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Current fall should target 61.8% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7309 from 0.7452 first. 0.7225 first. Break will target 100% projection at 0.7085 next. On the upside, above 0.7347 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7452 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. The break of 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) affirms this bearish view. On the upside, break of 0.7452 resistance might indicate medium term bottoming. But we’ll continue to favor the bearish view as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1425; (P) 1.1481; (R1) 1.1512;
EUR/CHF’s fall accelerates to as low as 1.1401 so far today. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 1.1366 low next. Break there will resume whole fall from 1.2004 and target 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.1366 from 1.1713 at 1.1319. On the upside, above 1.1460 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside of recovery should be limited well below 1.1556 resistance to bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, 1.2004 is seen as a medium term top with bearish divergence condition in daily and weekly MACD. 1.2000 is also an important resistance level. Hence, the corrective pattern from 1.2004 is expected to extend for a while before completion. We’re not anticipating a break of 1.2004 in near term. Another decline cannot be ruled out yet. But in that case, strong support should be seen between 1.1198 (2016 high), 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to contain downside.
