EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2307; (P) 1.2327 (R1) 1.2346;
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point, with focus on 1.2302 minor support. Break there will indicate completion of the rebound from 1.2214. Intraday bias would be turned back to the downside for 1.2214. Firm break there will revive the bearish case of trend reversal. On the upside, above 1.2396 will target 1.2475 and above to 1.2516/2555 key resistance zone.
In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862 in medium term.
AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7738; (P) 0.7773; (R1) 0.7795;
Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. Another rise in favor as long as 0.7725 minor support holds. Above 0.7809 will target 0.7915 resistance first. Break there will confirm that whole decline from 0.8135 has completed. However, below 0.7725 will bring retest of 0.7642 low instead.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we’d expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.
