US Dollar net speculator positions dipped last week to +$11.41 billion
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators edged their US dollar bullish bets lower for a second consecutive week.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling +$11.41 billion as of Tuesday August 9th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$1.40 billion from the +$12.81 billion total long position that was registered on August 2nd, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).
The aggregate dollar speculative position, despite two weekly declines, has remained over +$10 billion for four consecutive weeks.
Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:
Last week’s data showed the major currencies that improved the most against the US dollar were the Japanese yen (+7,131 weekly change in contracts), euro (+5,704 contracts), Australian dollar (+3,521 contracts) and the Swiss franc (+1,822 contracts).
The currencies on the downside of speculative bets versus the dollar were the British pound sterling (-7,567 weekly change in contracts), Canadian dollar (-2,392 contracts), Mexican peso (-2,239 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-830 contracts).
Notable changes:
Euro speculative positions have gained for two straight weeks last week after falling for the previous six straight weeks
British pound positions fell for a sixth straight week
Swiss franc positions rebounded very slightly and pushed net positions back into a small positive position
Canadian dollar bets fell for a second week and brought the overall net position down to its lowest level in five weeks
New Zealand dollar positions dropped into a small overall negative position for the first time in five weeks
This latest COT data is through Tuesday August 9th and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Please see the individual currency charts below. (Click on Charts to Enlarge)
Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price
EuroFX:
British Pound Sterling:
Japanese Yen:
Swiss Franc:
Canadian Dollar:
Australian Dollar:
New Zealand Dollar:
*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.