Currency Outlook, GPB/JPY, EUR/JPY: July 02, 2013

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.95; (P) 151.50; (R1) 152.19;

The break of 151.92 resistance indicates resumption of rebound from 147.10. Also the development affirm that correction from 156.77 has completed at 147.10. Intraday bias is back on the upside and further rise should be seen to 154.22 resistance. Break will target a retest of 156.77 high. On the downside, below 149.24 will turn bias back to the downside for 147.10 and below.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top is in place at 156.77 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Deeper pull back could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 118.82 to 156.77 at 142.27. Strong support would likely be seen at 140.37 to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. Overall, we'd still expect whole rise from 116.83 medium term bottom to resume later to 163.05 resistance and above after completing the correction.
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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.41; (P) 129.82; (R1) 130.59;

EUR/JPY's rally and break of 129.90 indicates resumption of rebound from 124.95. Also, the development affirmed the case that correction from 133.80 has completed. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 131.29 resistance and then a retest on 133.80. On the downside, though, below 128.93 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 126.57 support instead.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the medium term up trend from 94.11 has topped out at 133.80 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Such correction could extend with another fall to target 119.10 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 94.11 to 133.80 at 118.63). Strong support would be seen there, at least on initial attempt. But, break will target 61.8% retracement at 109.27. Nonetheless, considering the five wave structure of the rise from 94.11, we'd expect another medium term rally after completing the correction.
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