EUR/USD:
EUR/USD" title="EUR/USD" width="640" height="625">EUR/USD:
1.2719
Short-Term Trend: downtrend
Outlook:
EUR tried to rally in the 1st half ot last week, but failed at the declining 21-day moving avearage and then declined to new lows. The prices have almost reached our next downside target at 1.2670 level. The market is quite oversold, so I expect the downside to be limited here and a rally to develop soon. But, until we see a move abv last week's top (1.3070), the bears are in full control and weakness twd the next Fibo pivot at 1.2347 can't be ruled out.
On the upside, abv 1.3070 will indicate wave A has likely bottommed out and a multi-week rally twd 1.3520/1.3720 area will be expected....
A new Long-Term forecast has just been published. Read it here to find out our expectations for 2012.
Strategy:Stand aside.
GBP/USD:
GBP/USD" title="GBP/USD" width="640" height="512">
GBP/USD: 1.5424
Short-Term Trend: weak downtrend
Outlook:
This market remains quite choppy and difficult to trade. Despite the rally abv 1.5600 early last week, the bears remained in control as the 1.5680 pivot provided resistance again. Later in the week we witnessed another strong decline twd 1.5400.
Now, the very short-term picture is a mess. The confidence in the wave count presented on the chart above is also low, so I think it is better to step out and watch the market from the sidelines. At some point I expect to see a bigger decline twd 1.5000, but it is unclear now if the market wants to go directly lower or to continue trading sideways (between rought 1.54 and 1.58) for several mored days before going down.
Strategy: The hypothetical short from 1.5620/30 was stopped out at 1.5600. Stand aside.
USD/JPY:
USDJPY: 76.96
Short-Term Trend: weak downtrend
Outlook:
The market was under pressure early last week, but it failed to move below the important 76.60/50 support level and then staged a counter-trend rally. The bearish triangle scenario shown on the chart above is still our prefered choice, so further decline is favored as long as the prices stay below the78.20/25 resistance level. Eventually we expect this market to go to 74.50 and then to 68.70 level.
On the upside, only abv 78.20/25 negates the bearish outlook, risks rally twd the psychological 80.00 level...
Strategy: Holding short from 77.80 is favored. Stop=78.30. The downside target is near 69.00 eventually.