EUR/USD:
1.3389
Short-Term Trend: downtrend
Outlook:
A week ago I favored a short on small recovery against 1.3620 level. EUR managed to rally a bit but failed near 1.3540/45 and declined sharply again on late Friday session. As result, the daily chart remains quite bearish with the prices firmly below the declining 21-day moving average. So, right now I see no reason to change my bearish view here and I expect to see losses twd 1.3195 and 1.3050 in the coming week or so.
On the upside, I think the key resistance level for any shorts can be lowered to 1.3550, as a move above there will not be consistent with my bearish view.
Strategy: Holding short remains favored. The stop can be lowered to 1.3550.
GBP/USD:
GBP/USD: 1.5595
Short-Term Trend: downtrend
Outlook:
GBP managed to rally abv 1.5680/1.5700 level and our hypothetical short poisition was stopped out. However, the price pattern on the hourly chart remained bearish and with the Friday's sell-off the daily chart looks very bearish again. So, despite the rally to 1.5778 last week, there is no reason to be bullish here. In fact I see no reason to be neutral as well. The ST picture remains bearish as long as the last week's top remains intact. So, I continue to favor the short side here expecting to see a move twd 1.5260 initially and 1.5000 eventually.
On the upside, gains abv 1.5700 and abv 1.5778 will turn the immediate prospects bullish, so if one is short, they should probably consider a stop somewhere abv 1.5700.
Strategy: The prev. short was stopped out at 1.5700. New shorts are favored against 1.5730.
USD/JPY:
USD/JPY: 77.96
Short-Term Trend: sideways
Outlook:
In a quite boring market, USD managed to advance a bit against JPY. The wave count remains unclear here and I see no reason to just label the waves for the sake of it. The larger-degree trend remains on the downside, but the Short-Term trend has shifted to sideways. My best guess is presented on the chart above: if correct, a prolonged sideways consolidation between 79.50 and 76.50 lies ahead. If the presented scenario plays out, then a good shorting opportunity will occur sometime in Q1 of 2012.
Strategy: Stand aside.