EUR/USD" width="506" height="323">EUR/USD
: 1.3747
Short-Term Trend: sideways
Outlook:
In my last update three weeks ago EUR was trading near 1.3900 and I was very bullish. And initially my bullishness was justified as the single currency rallied to 1.4246. However the sharp pullback from there was something that I didn't expect to see. Still, the daily chart remains neutral or slightly bullish and there is still a good chance that wave [E] of the multi-year Triangle from the 2008 top has already ended. If correct, we have seen waves A and B from a Flat or Diametric pattern from the ealy October low. A move abv 1.4045 will confirm that view and will bring at least a re-test on the 1.4246 swing top.
On the downside, only sustained trading below 1.3520 will destroy the above mildly bullish outlook.
Strategy: The long side is favored against the last week's low.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD" width="511" height="305">
GBP/USD: 1.6061
Short-Term Trend: sideways
Outlook:
Unlike EUR/USD where we have seen big swings for the past three weeks, GBP/USD market has been much quieter. The price is now where I left it three weeks ago - just above 1.60 level. The very short-term picture looks positive and we can expect a move twd 1.6386 level. However, if the presented wave count is indeed unfolding, then the upside should be limited to that level and another big move down should start later this month or in early December.
On the downside, a move below 1.5840/20 will be a strong indication that wave C down is already under way.
Strategy: Stand aside.
USD/JPY:
USD/JPY" width="506" height="308">
USD/JPY: 77.09
Short-Term Trend: weak downtrend
Outlook:
I was bearish expecting a move down three weeks ago. However, there was no follow through selling on the downside when the prices broke below the 76.40 level. Instead we witnessed another sharp move higher (probably due to a currency intervention) all the way up to 79.52. Like all other similar moves higher, this one was not sustainable as well and the prices quickly started to retreat. Right now the prices are firmly below the 100-day moving average and the fact that the recent rally was capped by the 200-day moving average is a strong reason to believe the daily trend is still down. However, this downmove has become quite difficult to follow as it is extremely choppy. I retain my long-term target at 68.70 and the short-term target at 74.50 but from a trading perspective prefer to be more neutral.
Strategy: Stand aside.