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Currencies - Short-Term Outlook -18 March 2012

Published 03/19/2012, 03:22 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
EUR/USD
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GBP/USD
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USD/JPY
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EUR/USD: <span class=EUR/USD: " title="EUR/USD: " width="715" height="518">EUR/USD: 1.3173
Short-Term Trend:

weak downtrend

Outlook:

While EUR has followed exactly the red-line path suggested in our previous update, the daily chart is not much clearer than it was a week ago. The difficulty right now comes from the fact it is impossible to decipher the internal structure of the wave B that started from this year's low. So, the pullback that started in the last day of February might or might not have finished. I simply have no clear indications if this move lower is complete or not. Going forward however, I still expect to see a rise twd 1.3720, so this is my main idear here. At some point a rally twd that level should start. But it is impossible to say right now if this rally has already started or not. A move abv 1.3290 will be a strong confirmation that the rally from this year's low has indeed resumed...

Strategy: Stand aside.

GBP/USD:

<span class=GBP/USD:" title="GBP/USD:" width="717" height="512">GBP/USD:

1.5839

Short-Term Trend: sideways

Outlook:

Last week GBP declined below 1.5640 but nothing happened as the decline quickly ended. The the Friday's rally turned the very short-term picture positive. So, ti appears that wave C of (E) might have started already. If correct, gains twd 1.63/1.64 will be expected. A move abv 1.5945 will confirm this bullish view. Going forward however, this upmove is expected to be the last rally prior to sharp decline toward 1.35 and below. With this in mind, the long side is now favored for a Short-Term trade...

Strategy: Longs favored in the 1.5800/1.5750 zone against 1.5600. Target=1.6300.

USD/JPY:


<span class=USD/JPY: " title="USD/JPY: " width="717" height="512">
USD/JPY:

83.42

Short-Term Trend: uptrend

Outlook:

USD/JPY has reached my first upside objective at 83.80. The market has pulled back a bit from there but this pullback has been quite choppy. So, I think the upmove from the early Feb low is far from its completion. If USD manages to clear firmly the 83.80 level, a rally twd 87.40 will be favored.
On the downside, a move below 81.80/70 negates and risks deeper pullback of the most recent gains....

Strategy: Holding long from 79.70 is favored. Stop= 81.60. Target=87.00

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