EUR/USD:
EUR/USD:
1.3198
Short-Term Trend: weak uptrend
Outlook:
This chart remains a mess. And actually the picture is even less clear now that it was a week ago. From a trend-following perspective, the daily chart is more negative than neutral because the prices have been repelled by the still declining 200-day moving average and there is a strong sell signal from the daily Stochastics. Wavewise however, the picture is bullish as a rise twd 1.3720 is required even if wave (E) is incomplete.
As said before, when the market is giving us conflicting signals, it is best to be less aggressive.
Strategy: Stand aside.
GBP/USD:
GBP/USD:" title="GBP/USD:" width="715" height="518">GBP/USD: 1.5832
Short-Term Trend: sideways
Outlook:
The market moved abv 1.5950 and our hypothetical short position was stopped out. However, there was no follow through buying and the prices quickly returned below the 1.5950 level. As result, the daily chart remains quite neutral and rather unclear. The last week's price development does not allow us to confirm the wave count presented above. And that means that the probability of a rise twd 1.6380 is almost equal to the probability of a decline twd 1.5260. So, it makes most sense to be neutral here.
Strategy: The hypothetical short from 1.5780 was stopped out at 1.5950. Stay out.
USD/JPY:
USD/JPY: 81.78
Short-Term Trend: uptrend
Outlook:
USD is continuing to move higher and is approaching my 1st upside target at 83.80. Since this level is an important resistance level and the market is already overbought, I would expect to see some kind of a pullback once this level is reached.
On the downside, the key support can now be raised to just below the 80.00 level. Break below 80.00 will not turn the daily chart bearish, but will argue for more consolidation with downside bias. So, it makes sense to raise the protective stops to just below that level.
Strategy: Holding long from 79.70 is favored. Stop= 79.70. Target=83.80