A rally in the dollar index on Thursday to a 4-1/4 month high have pushed crude oil prices lower but it is likely to trade near $60 on mixed fundamentals.
The rising number of global coronavirus cases and third wave in the Eurozone have decreased the chances of fast economic recovery and limited energy consumption in the region. However positive global PMI numbers and other economic data have provided support to the prices.
Crude oil prices also receiving support from the continued closure of the Suez Canal as a container ship remains aground and continues to block ship traffic through the canal.
A container ship ran aground in the Suez canal Wednesday and continues to block tanker traffic through the canal. Attempts are continuing to free the ship, but it is lodged approximately 5 meters into the canal's bank and may remain stuck until Monday when a high tide will give salvage crews their best chance refloating the ship. About 1 million BPD of crude oil passes through the canal every day.
India's oil ministry reported Monday that India's Feb crude imports dropped -18.3% y/y to 15.2 MMT, the lowest in 6 months. A drop in energy demand from India is negative for oil prices.
As per the latest EIA report, the US crude oil inventories as of Mar. 19 were +6.4% above the seasonal 5-year average gasoline inventories were -3.4% below the 5-year average, and distillate inventories were +1.3% above the 5-year average. Also, US crude oil production in the week ended Mar. 19 rose +0.9% w/w at 11.0 million BPD which is negative for oil prices.
WTI Crude oil prices are finding a strong support base near 50 days EMA $59.00 and 100 days EMA at $54.66 while it may face stiff resistance around $62.37 and 63.88.