Crude Oil Intends To Rise

The commodity market remains strong in late summer. Brent is trading at $72.80 and trying to keep its positive momentum because the hurricane season factor in the Gulf of Mexico is just beginning.
 
The first of serious hurricanes has already been designated with the fourth out of five categories. Some oil producers manage to evacuate their personnel from oil platforms before the storm came, thus causing quite a stir among commodity buyers. This is the way they were probably thinking: since oil producers were nervous, it could mean that the hurricane might do damage to their extracting facilities. This, in its turn, might lead to supply problems from this region.
 
Another factor to support oil right now is the weak “greenback”. The American currency retreated after the speech delivered by the US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who said that the regulator didn’t exclude a possibility of an earlier reduction of its QE program before the end of the year. However, no dates were announced.
 
In the H4 chart, after reaching the predicted upside target at 72.55, Brent is starting the first correctional structure to reach 68.92 and may later form another ascending wave towards 76.10. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is trading towards 0. One should also pay attention to divergence between the price and the indicator. In the future, the line is expected to break 0, thus boosting the asset to fall towards lows on the price chart.

As we can see in the H1 chart, Brent has reached the target of the first ascending impulse; right now, it is falling towards 71.13. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending structure to reach 72.00 and then resume falling with the short-term target at 70.13. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: after breaking 50 to the downside, its signal line is steadily falling towards 20.
 
Disclaimer; Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author's particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.