CPO Trading Patterns And Ideas: August 2, 2012

Crude palm oil trading range for the day is 563-580.2. Market is looking to take support at 566.2, a break below could see a test of 563 and resistance is likely to be seen at 574.8, a move above could see prices testing 580.2. Crude palm oil has touched the low of 568.4 after opening at 572.1, and finally settled at 569.4.

Crude palm oil yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -0.32% down at 569.4 tracking weak overseas market which dropped as weak July exports offset a downgrade of soy crop conditions by the U.S. Department of Agriculture that fed fears of tighter global oilseed supplies.

Potential for further crop damage, due to forecasts for dry conditions in the U.S. the next few weeks, may tighten further global supplies of vegoils and underpin international vegoil prices.

MCX CPO gaining almost 1% on Wednesday. Expensive imports of edible oil are making the same costlier for the domestic markets. Malaysian palm oil production has risen consistently since March 2012 and expected to go as high as 1.9 mn tn in September. On the other hand, exports have fallen 14.8 percent in July to below 1.23mn tonnes compared to 1.45mn tonnes a month ago due to a lull in Asian demand.

Silver trading ideas for August 2

Silver trading range for the day is 52007-54483. Technically market is trading in the range as RSI for 18 days is currently indicating 45.73, where as 50 DMA is at 54107 and Silver is trading below the same and getting support at 52589 and below could see a test of 52007 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 53827, a move above could see prices testing 54483.

Silver fell yesterday sharply to settled at 53172 that is a fall of -1.51% or Rs.802.00 as disappointing global manufacturing data dampened sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's latest policy statement which is expected to stop short of aggressive stimulus actions.

Silver led everything down as the PMI manufacturing number that came out was negative and perceived as very much deflationary. Bullion was on track for a third consecutive session of losses as the precious metals market considered the prospect of additional monetary stimulus from the FOMC meeting later on Wednesday.

Spot silver prices declined around 1.8 percent in yesterday’s session. Additionally, a stronger DX also acted as a negative factor for the commodity.

The white metal touched an intraday low of $27.11/oz and closed at $27.40/oz in yesterday’s trading session. In the domestic markets prices fell by 1.5 percent after touching low of Rs. 52,662/kg and closed at Rs. 53,172/kg on Wednesday.

India’s silver import prices have also rose by $32/kg to $898/kg from $866/kg as per the statement from Central Board of Excise and Customs.

Crude trading ideas for August 2

Crude trading range for the day is 4854-5058. Technically market is getting support at 4917 and below could see a test of 4854 level, And resistance is likely to be seen at 5019, a move above could see prices testing 5058. Meanwhile the API’s weekly report said US Crude oil inventories fell 11.6mbls in the week ended July 27, a far bigger drop than expected, as imports declined.

Crude oil rallied +1.20% to settled at 4981 after official data indicated crude oil inventories fell significantly more than expected last week, however advances were subdued ahead of the Fed’s policy decision later in the day. Launching the oil rally, the US EIA said US Crude oil inventories decreased by 6.5mbls vs 0.7mbls.

Nymex Crude oil prices gained around 1 percent taking cues from more than expected decline in US Crude oil inventories which fell the most in last seven months. However, sharp upside in prices was capped on the back of unfavourable statement from US Fed policymakers along with strength in the DX.

Crude oil prices touched an intra-day high of $89.47/bbl and closed at $88.90/bbl in yesterday’s trading session. On the domestic bourses, prices increased by 1.2 percent and closed at Rs.4,981/bbl after touching an intraday high of Rs.4994/bbl on Wednesday. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee cap sharp gains in crude oil prices.

Crude oil’s gains remained limited amid caution ahead of the Fed's policy decision later in the session. The US central bank was expected to stop short of announcing a QE3 measures, but to indicate that it remained ready to act to spur economic growth if necessary. Investors also remained wary ahead of ECB meeting, amid growing concerns that the bank will disappoint expectations for bold steps to counter the debt crisis in the euro zone.