In the Outlook 2025 CORN, the ETF, is an honorable mention pick for this year.
I use a monthly chart in the report as a longer-term viewpoint. For CORN to regain a 6-7-year business cycle expansion or go through the 80-month moving average, the price to clear is $20.00.
The price of corn futures is influenced by a combination of supply, demand, and external factors.
There are 4 major supply factors to consider:
- Weather
- Acreage Planted & Yields
- Global Production
- Pests/Diseases
Corn futures were under heavy pressure last Friday but are bouncing back to start the week due to dryness in South America and broad strength in commodities.
The major demand factors are:
- Ethanol Production
- Livestock Feed
- Exports
- Industrial Use
Talk of potential softer tariffs and higher natural gas and oil prices are potentially giving corn support.
Economic & Policy Factors
- Exchange Rates
- Government Policies
- Interest Rates
The US dollar relaxed a bit while interest rates remained high.
Market & Seasonal Factors
- Speculation
- Seasonality
- Stock-to-Use Ratios
Seasonality is in corn’s favor. Marketing year (MY) to date shipments are now 24.49% above the same period in the 2023/24 MY.
External Factors
- Global Conflicts
- Transport Costs
Currently, oil prices could remain a factor, as well as any dockworkers strike and the continuing volatile geopolitical situation.
Technicals
The chart above is a daily viewpoint.
On the Daily chart, CORN is in an accumulation phase although needs to confirm with another close above the 200-DMA.
CORN outperforms SPY. And the momentum indicator tells us that the bullish divergence continues while momentum improves.
18.85 is a good start as an area to clear.
The futures chart shows support at 445 near-term.
Should Corn futures clear recent highs around 460, it is possible to see a substantial rally in 2025.
The bigger question is though, if Corn and other grains rally in 2025, what are the implications for
- Inflation
- Tariffs and policies
- Geopolitics
- Impact of weather
- Strain on the consumer
ETF Summary
(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)
- S&P 500 (SPY) Gap above the 50-DMA 593 now support
- Russell 2000 (IWM)225 pivotal
- Dow (DIA) 422 pivotal support
- Nasdaq (QQQ) 520 would be good to hold up
- Regional banks (KRE) 65 resistance 58 support
- Semiconductors (SMH) 260 super pivotal
- Transportation (IYT) 68 support and 70 resistance
- Biotechnology (IBB) Like to see this clear 135
- Retail (XRT) Granny needs to get back over 80.50
- iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) Holding above key support