One of the reasons why US GDP growth disappointed in Q1 16 was moderate private consumption growth. For us this was a surprise given that employment has continued to increase, real wage growth is solid and consumers were relatively optimistic. It seems as if the uncertainty at the beginning of the year also hit the consumers. So today there was much focus on the release of retail sales in April and preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment in May to get a grasp of whether private consumption is rebounding in Q2 or not.
Retail sales in April were strong as the control group rose 0.9% m/m in April (consensus: 0.4% m/m), the strongest monthly increase since February 2014. Retail sales in February and March were also revised up by 0.3pp and 0.1pp. Based on our calculations and expectations for the rest of Q2, private consumption growth could be above 4% q/q AR.
The preliminary consumer survey for May from University of Michigan showed that consumer sentiment rose to 95.8 in May from 89.0 in April, which is the highest level since June 2015 and well above the historical average. Both current conditions and expectations rose. Current conditions rose to 108.6 from 106.7 while expectations increased to 87.5 from 77.6. In other words, consumers are still relatively upbeat.
Both we and the Fed expect GDP growth to rebound in Q2 and todays releases support this view. Private consumption is still the main growth driver but the US is also facing less headwind from China and a strong USD. Our main scenario is still that the Fed will hike in September. By waiting until September, the Fed can get more confirmation that growth is rebounding after a weak Q1 and that the labour market continues to tighten, we will be past the UK referendum and the Fed can better prepare markets about its hiking intentions in connection with the July meeting. That being said, this is based on our main scenario that the UK remains in the EU. If the UK votes to leave, we think the Fed will most likely postpone the second hike further in order to analyse the short-term impact on the economy. As we argued in our Yield Forecast Update, 13 May 2016, we think markets are less focused on the second hike as we are now very close to the UKs EU referendum. After the referendum there could be a re-pricing of Fed expectations if no Brexit is seen.
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