Good news stateside yesterday morning: The Consumer Confidence Index jumped 9 points to 70.3 in September. The score exceeded even the most optimistic analysts' expectations, which bodes well given that consumer spending drives close to 70% of the U.S. economy.
Confidence in being able to find a (better) job over the next six months contributed to the sudden improvement, as no doubt did the slow recovery in home prices. According to an anonymous source, President Obama was particularly delighted on learning the news, just over a month before Americans head to the polls...
Markets nevertheless seem to be shifting their focus to gloomier aspects of the world economy, in particular the situation in Spain which is escalating. A quick drop in North American stock markets yesterday afternoon and a continued bearish trend in Asia (-2% in Tokyo) and in Europe overnight shows that caution is back. The greenback will be favoured in such a situation and exporters who have had a rough ride of late may see opportunities to cut their losses.
Leading indicators for China will be released this evening and tomorrow morning, U.S. GDP and retail sales figures will be announced.