Sell February cattle.
Sell 121.37 stop. Protective stop 123.22. Potential projection 118.97.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart triggered a sell in December.
2. The monthly chart has a key reversal top - suggesting a major trend change from up to down.
3. The weekly chart triggered a preliminary sell this week.
4. The weekly chart has a previous sell that is still intact.
5. The weekly appears to be forming a potential 1,2,3 top formation.
6. The macd is negative on all three charts.
7. On the daily chart, cattle closed under both the 100 and 150 day ma on both Friday and today.
8. Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market directio.
Sell March cocoa.
Sell 20.61 stop. Protective stop 21.71. Potential projection 18.80.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. On the monthly chart cocoa failed the 100 day ma in December and closed under it. That is negative.
2. The monthly chart has a major key reversal top and sell signal that are still intact.
3. On the weekly chart cocoa has attempted for four weeks to get over the 22.00 resistance area. It failed again last week.
4. The weekly has a previous sell that is still intact.
5. A sell signal would also trigger another sell on the weekly chart.
6. On the daily chart cocoa failed to hold above the 20 day ma again last week. And attempt to rally over it again today failed.
7. The daily chart has a previous sell that is still intact.
GRAIN COMMENTS:
MAR CORN: On the daily chart it rallied up to the 100 day ma today and stopped. Long term corn gapped over the 20 day ma on the weekly chart. That is supportive for the market. On the monthly chart it rallied to the high end of the range that it has been stuck in on the monthly chart for four months now so not much change there. However, the macd is turning up on the monthly chart. Waiting for a setback to go long again. Closed 658 1/2, up 12.
MAR MINI WHEAT:
It triggered a buy today and rallied to 670 3/4. It made it over the 650 resistance that held the market back for three days last week. The monthly chart has now triggered a preliminary buy signal. That is constructive. On the weekly chart it rallied over the 100 day ma and ended the day right on it. This is constructive too. Keep stops at 641 1/2. Closed 657, up 4 1/4.
Position: Long 660 (1.3).
Projection: 700.
MAR MINI SOYBEANS:
They have been holding the 1200 support last week on the daily and today gapped over the 1225 resistance. They may fill their gap. It comes in at 1215 3/4. On the weekly chart they gapped over the 20 day ma. That is the first time since they failed that average in September. They are already over both the 150 and 100 day ma on the same chart. The monthly chart is not as impressive. It rallied up to the 20 day ma today and started to back off. This may suggest that any move in the beans will be near term only. It is too early to tell. Closed 1227 1/2, up 19 3/4.
MAR MEAL:
It triggered a buy on Friday and reached resistance today on the daily chart at approximately 320. The monthly chart formed a key reversal bottom in December. It was not a minor one either. Based on that alone and the turn around in the macd, the monthly chart suggests there could be a lot more to meal and this rally. The problem is the weekly chart. It did get over the 20 day ma today but is right up against both the 100 and 150 day ma. They intersect and that makes for some good resistance. Just watching. Closed 31.92, up 6.10.
MAR BEAN OIL:
It triggered a buy today. It gapped up. I bought it at 53.20, having to pay up. It rallied to 53.79. It closed the day out right on the 100 day ma. Long term there is change. The monthly is triggering a preliminary buy signal this month. It is clearly over the 20 day ma too. On the weekly chart, bean oil gapped over the 20 day ma. That is the first time it has challenged that average since September. Keep stops at 51.42. Closed 53.11, up .69.
Position: Long 53.20 (1.3).
Projection: 54.75.
MEAT COMMENTS:
FEB HOGS:
I covered the short on Friday as I did not like how quickly they came back after closing much lower. They continued to follow through today with a high at 85.62. They also triggered a buy from Friday's inside day. The daily now suggests that the hogs are starting another wave up since the Dec. 16 low. Closed 85.52, up 1.22.
Position: Short 84.75 (12.29). Exit 84.80 (12.30). Loss $95 (+comm/fees).
FEB CATTLE:
On the daily chart they sold off under both the 100 & 150 day ma on Friday. Not a good sign. Today they rallied back over them but could not hold. Again they closed under those two averages. Considering the strength in the other markets cattle should have performed better. They did not. A trade could be developing. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 121.55, up .10.
SOFTS COMMENTS:
MAR COTTON:
It triggered a buy today and rallied to 95.80. It also closed over the 95.00 resistance. During the day I moved stops up to 93.15. Move stops again from 93.15 up to 94.95. Closed 95.80, up 4.00.
Position: Long 92.15 (1.3).
Projection: 98.65.
MAR ORANGE JUICE:
In my last Update I questioned if it would get over 170.00. It did as the high today was 174.00. It is back in resistance again on the daily chart. The monthly chart is not showing anything new. The weekly is triggering a preliminary buy this week. We'll see where this takes OJ. After all it is that time of year when the concern for freezing affects OJ. The next resistance, based on the weekly, is around 179.00. Just watching. Closed 173.10, up 4.10.
MAR COFFEE: On the daily chart it has been "hanging around" the support of the descending triangle for four days. Today it sold off the most, down to 222.40 but came right back to close back over that support and the 20 day ma. It may rally near term but it would have to do something dramatic to change the negative stance of the long term charts. If the other markets continue strong I suspect it will drag coffee with them near term. It could reach for 231.50 resistance at least. Just watching. Closed 227.20, up .35.
MAR COCOA: I tried to sell it today. It rallied instead but that was stopped by the 20 day ma. I'll try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 21.15, up .06.
MAR SUGAR:
I tried to sell it today. It rallied instead and broke out of the consolidation it has been in. The high 24.55. On the weekly chart it is trying to get over the 100 day ma. It is too early to tell whether the breakout on the daily chart is a false breakout or not. Watching closely. Closed 24.51, up 1.22.
METALS COMMENTS:
MAR COPPER:
While gold and silver had their very extensive sell-off last week copper held. It rallied over the 20 day ma on the daily chart today and looks headed for old resistance up around 363.00. The weekly chart is triggering a buy this week. The monthly already has a buy. Just looking at the weekly chart, copper looks like it could go to 375.00. Closed 352.85, up 9.25.
FEB MINI GOLD:
On the monthly chart gold has held at the 1550.00 support. The weekly continues to have a sell signal in spite of the recent rally. It also got over 1600.00 today. As it stands now, this rally could be a rally to eventually short. Just watching. Closed 1600.50, up 33.70.
MAR MINI SILVER:
It looks as though it is trying for 30.000. Getting over that resistance area would be constructive. Both the monthly and weekly charts continue to have a sell. Just watching. Closed 29.572, up 1.657.
ENERGIES, CURRENCIES & BONDS:
MAR MINI CRUDE OIL:
The rally today was extreme - no doubt triggered by Iran's comments for us to stay out of the Persian Gulf. Crude took out the Nov. 17 high (103.20) on the daily chart today. Today's high 103.36. Today's action triggered a preliminary buy on the monthly chart. That suggests it could test the May high of 114.83. The weekly chart has not shown much change yet. Just watching. Closed 103.14, up 4.14.
MAR MINI JAPANESE YEN:
It has broken out to the upside again and is now clearly over the 100 day ma on the daily chart. It appears as though it will test 131.00. The weekly is now over the 20 day ma and the monthly is triggering a buy. All these factors are positive and suggest higher prices. Just watching. Closed 130.56, up 46.
MAR SWISS FRANC:
About the only thing different about this market is that it is now over the 20 day ma on the daily chart. That has been an issue for months. The long term charts show no real change yet. The swiss will most likely test 108.00 near term and possibly 100.00. Closed 107.45, up .75.
MAR DOLLAR INDEX:
It did not hold 80.000 today and closed under it for the first time mid year. That suggests further follow through. On the daily chart it will run into some support around 79.300. Long term it looks more like 79.000 or even 78.750. Nothing has changed technically long term. Watching closely. Closed 79.912, down .610.
MAR MINI EUROCURRENCY:
It gapped up today over 130.000. This is support long term. Long term the charts are still negative. Both the monthly and weekly charts sport sell signals. A rally to 132.000 or even 133.000 could be an area to short. Closed 130.630, up .95.
MAR CANADIAN DOLLAR: It gapped over the 100 day ma on the daily chart today and was stopped by the 99.00 resistance. On the weekly chart it is over the 20 day ma for the first time since it failed it in August. But it was stopped by resistance right over that. If it can take out 99.45 on the monthly, it will be triggering a buy. Just watching. Closed 98.83, up .62.
MAR AUSSIE: Another gapped market on both the daily and weekly charts. On the weekly chart it is back over the 20 day ma. Hopefully it can hold it this time. The last time in October failed. If this current wave up on the daily can follow through, it could reach 105.00. Closed 102.99, up 1.28.
MAR EMINI: It gapped up today but ran into the 1275.00 resistance area. In October it reached 1283.00 and then had a major sell-off so with a high today at 1280.00, it stopped. The monthly chart is now triggering a preliminary buy and the weekly already had one. Just looking at the monthly chart, it could try for 1400.00. Closed 1272.00, up 19.50
DEC 10 YEAR NOTES: It rallied to the high end of its range on Friday and sold off today. Nothing new here. Just stuck in a range. Possibly it is forming a huge top. Closed 130.175, down .185.